In 2025. the scale of China's waterborne coatings market is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan, and the market share is expected to jump to more than 50%. This "green revolution" driven by environmental protection policies, technological innovation and consumer demand upgrades is reshaping the global coatings industry. From building exterior walls to car primers, from industrial equipment to smart homes, waterborne coatings have become the core direction of the low-carbon transformation of the coatings industry with their zero VOC emissions and low pollution characteristics. In this trillion-level blue ocean, how local companies seize opportunities and break through technical bottlenecks will become the key to determining the industry's voice.
Policy and demand dual-wheel drive: market penetration rate accelerates
The explosive growth of waterborne coatings in China is inseparable from the dual promotion of policies and markets.
At the policy level, from the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coatings Industry" to the "Action Plan for the Control of New Pollutants", the country has paved a "green fast lane" for waterborne coatings by restricting the use of solvent-based coatings and establishing environmental protection product certification. Cities represented by Beijing and Shanghai have clearly required the comprehensive promotion of water-based paints in the construction field, and some industrial fields have even included water-based paints in the mandatory conditions for bidding.
At the consumer level, as the "dual carbon" goals have become popular, consumers' preference for environmentally friendly products has significantly increased. In the field of furniture and home improvement, the annual growth rate of demand for water-based wood coatings exceeds 20%. Data from e-commerce platforms show that the sales of water-based paint products with "zero formaldehyde" and "environmentally friendly certification" labels continue to lead the market.
The rigid constraints of policies and the flexible demand of consumption have formed a synergy, pushing the market share of water-based paints from less than 30% in 2020 to 40% in 2023. and it is expected to achieve more than half of the replacement in 2025.
Application scenarios blossom in multiple places: construction is still the main battlefield, and the industrial field is accelerating penetration
The wide application scenarios of water-based paints are its core advantage.
1. Architectural coatings: the absolute main force accounting for 60%
As an important material for green buildings, water-based architectural coatings are widely used in new residential buildings and old city renovation. Through technological research and development, local brands such as 3trees and Carpoly have launched high-end products that are both weather-resistant and decorative, successfully seizing the market in first- and second-tier cities. Taking Carpoly as an example, its water-based exterior wall paint has been applied to landmark buildings in Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other places, marking a breakthrough for domestic water-based paint in the high-end market.
2. Industrial coatings: differentiated competition under technical barriers
In industrial fields such as automobiles, ships, and steel structures, although water-based paints only account for 20% of the market share, they are growing rapidly. Foreign brands have long dominated due to their technological first-mover advantage, but local companies are catching up through industry-university-research cooperation. Carpoly's independently developed water-based epoxy anti-corrosion paint has successfully entered the supply chain of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and FAW Group, breaking the monopoly of foreign brands in the field of high-end industrial coatings.
3. Emerging fields: cross-border extension from home to electronics
The application of water-based paints in wood products, packaging, electronics and other fields is gradually emerging. For example, the requirements of technology companies such as Huawei and Apple for environmentally friendly materials have forced coating companies to develop water-based coatings with antibacterial and conductive functions, further broadening the market boundaries.
Foreign capital and local competition: Technological innovation is the key to breaking the deadlock
At present, the Chinese water-based coatings market presents a competitive pattern of "foreign capital dominates the construction field, and local companies are deeply engaged in industrial segments".
Challenges and opportunities coexist: the path to breaking the deadlock is clearly visible
Despite the broad market prospects, water-based coatings still face multiple challenges:
1. Technical bottleneck: The industrial field has strict requirements on the heat resistance and corrosion resistance of coatings, and some core technologies still rely on imports.
2. Cost pressure: Due to insufficient technical investment, small and medium-sized enterprises lack competitive product prices.
3. Market awareness: Construction parties in some regions are not familiar with the construction process of water-based coatings and there is resistance to promotion.
But the opportunities are also significant:
Policy dividends: The central government provides special subsidies to pilot cities for green building materials, and local governments continue to increase tax incentives for water-based coatings companies.
Alternative space: Solvent-based coatings are facing elimination under the pressure of VOC governance, and the alternative space for water-based coatings is expected to exceed 2 million tons per year.
Technology integration: The introduction of new materials such as bio-based resins and nanomaterials will give water-based coatings more functional properties (such as self-cleaning and fireproofing), opening up the high-end market increment.
Future Outlook: Global layout from "following" to "leading"
By 2025. China's water-based coatings market will enter a mature stage, showing three major trends:
1. Increased market concentration: Head companies will further consolidate their market share through mergers and acquisitions, and the industry CR5 (market share of the top five) may exceed 40%.
2. Functional coatings explode: Functional water-based coatings such as antibacterial, heat insulation, and photovoltaic integration will become new growth poles, driving up the average market price.
3. Accelerated global layout: Local companies use the "Belt and Road" initiative to export water-based coating technology to Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions with strong infrastructure demand.
The rise of waterborne coatings in China is not only an inevitable choice in the era of environmental protection, but also a microcosm of the technological leap achieved by national brands. From policy-driven to market-conscious, from substitutes to mainstream products, the "Chinese story"of waterborne coatings is still being written. In the future, with the in-depth promotion of the "dual carbon" goals and the green reconstruction of the global supply chain, Chinese waterborne coatings are expected to move from the "world factory" to the "global innovation center", contributing Chinese wisdom to the sustainable development of the global coatings industry.
